The Cycle Is Intact — 5‑Year Rotation Imminent; Altseason Incomi

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

hamidrezzaemami

Summary
Many claim the market cycle has broken. The data disagree. A persistent ~5‑year structural rhythm remains, and current momentum, Fibonacci behavior, and on‑chain flows point to a dominance reversal: capital rotating out of BTC and into altcoins — the classic altseason setup.

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Thesis

The market's underlying cycle has not changed; it adapts. Bitcoin dominance rises during accumulation and early bull phases, then falls as liquidity rotates into higher-beta altcoins once macro momentum and risk appetite align. This rotation historically clusters around multi-year intervals that coincide with halving and broader liquidity cycles. We are now at the threshold of that rotation.

Evidence and Mechanism

Timing consistency - Major

dominance inflection points repeat on multi-year (~5-year) cadences rather than as random events.

Momentum flip precedes rotation

- Monthly momentum indicators (e.g., MACD) historically flip before sustained dominance declines and

alt rallies.

Fibonacci decision zones - Dominance repeatedly stalls or reverses around long-ferm retracement bands (0.5-0.618), which act as carital reallocation ↓ triggers.
On-chain plumbing - Exchange flows, large-holder distribution, and rising alt market cap relative to BTC are the mechanics that execute the rotation.

Narrative outlets - New narratives (L2s, DeFi, Al tokens) provide destinations for rotated capital without negating the cycle itself.

Confirmation Checklist (what to watch)

Monthly MACD: bearish flip on BTC dominance with expanding negative histogram.

Fibonacci: rejection or failed break at long-term resistance (0.5-0.618).

Alt market cap: sustained outperformance vs BTC and rising alt volumes.

Exchange flows: net BTC outflows or increased alt deposits/ withdrawals.

LTH behavior: distribution or

reduced accumulation by long-term BTC holders.

↓Conclusion

"Cycle is dead" confuses novelty with structural change. If dominance momentum turns down, long-term Fibonacci resistance holds, and capital begins flowing into alts, an altseason is not a hope - it is the expected phase of a repeating multi-year cycle. Trade the confirmation, manage risk, and watch the plumbing.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/UV0DfJsp-The-Cycle-Is-Intact-5-Year-Rotation-Imminent-Altseason-Incomi/