BTC.D, USDT.D, USDC.D will enter a downtrend by the end of December. I believe we’ll test the lower boundary of the channel that started in the early days of this cycle, and massive liquidity will flow into altcoins.
We're seeing a sell gonna happen where BTC.D will return to 57.07 at some point will it happen immediately, perhaps but most importantly I wanted to emphasize how it's going to reach the 57.07 level before giving us further information on where it will like to go to next.
At GreenBayChart we have gone through every major Bitcoin crash and know: panic is not the end, but a buy signal. In December 2025 BTC is down 30 % from its October high of $125,000, and the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 15 — the “extreme fear” zone. Beginners sell in fear, while professionals at GreenBayChart use it as an accumulation indicator. At GreenBayChart the stats are simple: 8 out of 10 times in the last 5 years “extreme fear” preceded +50–300 % growth in the next 6–12 months.
In this article GreenBayChart analyzes the sell-off trigger, what an index of 15 means historically, “smart money” behavior during crashes, past examples, and entry tactics for those who want to be in the 10 % of winners.
BTC –30 % Since October: What Triggered the Sell-Off
At GreenBayChart we record: since October 2025 BTC has lost 30 %, trading in the $86,000–$92,000 range. Triggers at GreenBayChart:
Profit-taking after +180 % yearly rally
ETF outflows of $4.2 billion in November–December
Macro risks: slower Fed rate cuts, geopolitics
At GreenBayChart this is a classic correction: after overheating (funding rate >0.08 %, RSI >80) comes a healthy pullback. At GreenBayChart we saw similar in 2021 (−53 %) and 2024 (−42 %) — both times followed by new ATHs.
Fear & Greed Index at 15: What It Means Historically
At GreenBayChart the Fear & Greed Index is our favorite contrarian indicator.
Level 15 — “extreme fear” — occurred only 8 times in 5 years:
March 2020 (index 8) — BTC $3,850 → +1600 % to peak
September 2021 (index 12) — $40,000 → $69,000 (+72 %)
June 2022 (index 7) — $17,600 → $73,000 (+315 %)
At GreenBayChart average growth after index <20 — +220 % in the next 12 months. Now at GreenBayChart the index is 15 — the zone where retail capitulates and “smart money” accumulates.
“Smart Money” Behavior in Crashes: Accumulation or Flight?
At GreenBayChart we track whales via Glassnode and Arkham:
Exchange outflows: +48,000 BTC to cold wallets in November–December
Institutions: ETF inflows slowed but didn’t turn negative (except short-term rotation)
Miners: sales reduced post-halving
At GreenBayChart this is an accumulation signal: whales buy on retail fear. Example from GreenBayChart: in 2022 whales bought 1.2 million BTC at $16,000–$25,000 — then price +300 %.
History: 8 Times in 5 Years Panic Turned into Growth
At GreenBayChart the stats are compelling:
2018 — index 5 → +1200 %
2020 — index 8 → +1600 %
2021 — index 12 → +72 %
2022 — index 7 → +315 %
5–8. Local panics 2023–2025 — average +85 % growth
At GreenBayChart conclusion: panic is not the cycle end, but its bottom.
Entry Tactics: DCA, Limit Orders, Staged Allocation
At GreenBayChart we recommend three approaches:
Enhanced DCA: weekly buys $500–$2,000 + double on levels $80K and $74K
Limit orders: 30 % at $86K, 40 % at $80K, 30 % at $74K
Staged allocation: 50 % cash in stablecoins, phased entry on rebound confirmation
At GreenBayChart clients with this tactic in 2022 bought average $22,000 — profit +300 % to peak.
Final Word from GreenBayChart
Panic is not an enemy, but an ally of the patient investor.
At GreenBayChart we see: when everyone is afraid — the bottom is forming. Retail sells on fear, “smart money” buys. History shows: 8 out of 8 times “extreme fear” turned into growth.
The main thing is to think like a professional, not the crowd: keep liquidity, enter according to plan, don’t give in to emotions.
At GreenBayChart our clients are already using this panic for accumulation — and preparing for the new rally.
Quinten Francois posted a brief but effective statement. He explained that all seasons of excessive fear were followed up by regrets. The market indicator he referred to is famous. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index triggered the high levels of fear again. The index fell to under the 20 level. Such a zone is typical of panic conditions. During such stages, retail confidence is undermined. Markets become increasingly intense in selling. The Bitcoin has just fallen short of major psychological milestones. The volatility rose drastically. The social media were dominated by negative sentiment. Merchants were emotional. There were well-established trends as seen by long-term investors.
What the Fear and Greed Index Tells you
The Fear and Greed Index follows the sentiment of the investors. It is a combination of volatility, volume, social sentiment, and momentum. Capitulation is indicated by extreme fear. Sellers scramble out of positions. Liquidations through force are accelerating declines. Weak hands are flushed out by leverage. In the past, such occurrences were bottoms in the market. Bitcoin usually backtracked soon thereafter. The recovery of prices was quicker than anticipated. Late sellers faced regret. The chart that is available in the post brings out several cycles. All of the extremes fear readings were followed by drastic rebounds. The information confirms the principles of contrarian investing.
Pattern Explained by Behavioral Finance
A significant role is taken by the human psychology. Investors are terrified of the losses than they appreciate gains. This idea is based on the behavioral finance studies. Research by Kahneman and Tversky describes loss aversion. Irrational decisions are inspired by fear. During uncertainty, panic selling is higher. Markets are ruthless to emotional responses. Composed persons have an advantage. Radical fear results in wrong pricing. Assets are traded at a low price. Patience is a virtue of long term capital. This is the psychological reality behind the message Quinten puts across. History repeats itself since a behavior is unchanging.
After price recovery is regret. Investors sell near lows. They wait for confirmation. Markets turn back against the expectation. Re-entry feels risky. Prices move higher quickly. Lack of opportunity induces emotional suffering. The same is the case with previous cycles. Fear peaks close to bottoms. Greed returns near tops. Emotions are hard to time. Punishment is more important than prophecy. Supreme fear puts faith to the test. Ready investors are the only ones who take decisive action.
Implications of this to the existing market
The present world is reminiscent of the previous recessions. The feeling is still highly negative. News cycles enhance negative thinking. There is the pressure of Macroeconomic uncertainty. Nevertheless, accumulation is observed on-chain. The long-term holders increase positions. Supply tightens gradually. The weak hands are shaken out by volatility. These are those conditions that had historically favored patient capital. The post by Quinten is an acknowledgment. During times of downfall, fear is forever. History shows otherwise. Markets eventually recover. Emotional exits are followed by regrets.
Hello traders,
Its been a minute since I last checked my wallet, cause I don't love seeing red. Who loves to?
BTC dominance on the 2W timeframe has been in an impulsive bullish uptrend. Structure-wise, it has printed multiple BOS + CHoCH, which tells me that capital are still rotating into Bitcoin, not alts.
What make me believe this further, is that BTC is forming a short-term bullish structure that might target $100-105k price range
Dear Traders :)
Btc D may visit 66%
lets see on weekly if it can do it
As you can see on the chart, the largest dominance charts — from BTC.D to XRP.D and others — are all approaching the end of their trend. On the 2W chart we’ve already lost support. I expect altcoins to find their bottom by the end of December and begin their rally from January through March–April.”
Let's take a brief but informative look at Bitcoin Dominance using the indicator.
We currently have a SHORT signal. Below, I'll outline the key points and the indicator's opinion.
Dominance analysis is key to understanding overall market sentiment: a decline often signals rising interest in altcoins.
To see the full picture and understand where the price might move next, be sure to study the photo with the chart and indicator labels.
Now, on to the structure:
Ликвидность — Подсвечена на графике;
Локально канал — Нисходящий;
Ближайшая полка поддержки — далеко за LL;
Ближайшая полка сопротивления — 59.26%;
Ближайшая зона поддержки (LL) — 58.65%;
Ближайшая зона сопротивления (LH) — 62.25%;
Сигнал памп/дамп — отсутствуют;
Деньги в активе — переходят в отрицательное значение;
Гистограмма и киты — на стороне лонга (слабо);
Локально трендовая — на стороне лонга!
PHOTO WITH INFORMATION FROM THE INDICATOR:
Alright crypto fam, buckle up! We're diving deep into Bitcoin's market cap dominance on the 1-month chart, and I've spotted some critical junctures. Scenario A? A straightforward dip to the 53.11% support zone. But here's where it gets nuanced: Scenario B suggests a potential move down to 57.75% for a re-accumulation, followed by an epic rebound to challenge 63.62%—a level I'm eyeing for potential resistance before a final leg down to 53.11%. This is fascinating price action, and I want to hear your takes!
BTC.D
•BTC dominance is sitting around 59% — steady for now, but without strong momentum behind it.
•With the RSI holding below 50, the overall strength looks like it’s fading gradually.
•The previous trendline break is still valid, and it suggests the market may be shifting its behavior.
•The 57% level is the key point to watch - any test there could tell us a lot about the next direction.
•If dominance breaks below 57% with a clean close, that could mark the start of a corrective move.
•The zone between 54% and 50% remains important - historically, this area has acted as a transition zone in market cycles.
Important now :
•How price reacts around 57%
•Whether RSI continues to stay below 50
•If dominance starts drifting toward the 54%–50% zone
(Current structure leans weak — but the key decision level is 57%.
Above that level, the outlook remains neutral; below it, market conditions may begin to shift.)
update soon ..
💥 BITCOIN DOMINANCE (BTC.D)
**Chart:** Weekly (1W)
This weekly BTC.D chart clearly outlines the **major cycles** that have shaped the market structure from 2017 to the present. Specifically, the **35% and 39%** levels are **critically important** for cycle bottoms.
🎯 History Repeats Itself: Major Cycle Peaks and Drops
The chart illustrates how Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has dropped from massive peaks, and how these drops have opened the door to **Altcoin Seasons**:
1. **2017 Mega Bull Peak (95% $\rightarrow$ 35%):**
* The first major rally pushed Dominance to **95%**. This was a period where the market was almost entirely focused on Bitcoin.
* As the market matured and Altcoins gained popularity, BTC.D rapidly fell to **35%**. This drop coincided with the largest **"Altcoin Season"** in history. The **35%** level is the **lowest support** point we have seen so far.
2. **2021 Bull Peak Recurrence (72% $\rightarrow$ 39%):**
* In the 2020-2021 rally, the Dominance peak remained around **72%**, indicating a more balanced market compared to 2017.
* The subsequent drop brought Dominance to the **39%** level, setting the stage for the big Altcoin rally of 2021. **39%** serves as the most important **secondary support/major bottom** since 2018.
📈 Current Situation: Searching for the New Cycle Peak
We can observe that since the beginning of 2023, we have been within a rising channel:
* **Ascending Trend Support:** Since early 2023, Dominance has been moving above the **ascending trend line** shown with the dashed line. This confirms that a major Altcoin rotation has not yet begun, and Bitcoin still dominates the market.
* **Recent Peak (66%):** In early 2025, Dominance made a local peak around **66%**. This peak is below the previous 72% peak, a trend that suggests Altcoins' share of the total market is **increasing** with each cycle.
* **In-Channel Correction:** Dominance has currently entered a corrective move from the **66%** peak and is pulling back towards the ascending trend line.
The large orange arrow on the chart points to a **strong expectation** for the upcoming period.
1. The Altcoin Season (Expected and Main Scenario):
The large orange arrows indicate that Dominance is expected to head towards the critical support levels with a **sharp drop**. If the current correction continues and Dominance breaks below the ascending trend line, the target will likely be:
First Critical Support:** The **39%** level. This level is the 2021-2022 cycle bottom and is -strong psychological support.
Ultimate Target (Mega Altcoin Season):** The **35%** level. If the market experiences an Altcoin frenzy similar to 2017, this lowest level may be retested or slightly undercut.
> **TECHNICAL CONCLUSION:** The **66%** peak could be the Dominance peak for the 2025/2026 cycle. A drop initiating from here will trigger a **historic Altcoin Season**.
🔥 FINAL VERDICT: The Cryptollica Move
This pullback in Dominance from **66%** suggests that **we must turn our attention to ALTCOINS**. Technically, the moment Dominance breaks this trend line, the **rotation of large capital from Bitcoin to Altcoins** will begin, and the targets in the **39% - 35%** range will be activated.
> **Trader's Note:** We are entering a period where it makes sense to **increase risk appetite** and **take positions in the Altcoin portfolio**. A Dominance drop will cause Altcoins to *surge* on their BTC $ pair, even if the BTC $ price remains stable.
That's an excellent move! Combining the bearish Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) scenario with the **ETH/BTC** parity chart allows us to understand the Altcoin Season expectation and where capital is most likely to flow.
---
👑 The Role of the ETH/BTC Parity: The Leadership Indicator
Historically, when Bitcoin Dominance begins to fall, **Ethereum (ETH)** takes the lead in the market capital flow and pulls other Altcoins along with it.
BTC.D continues to move within a local downtrend.
I expect dominance to keep flowing out of Bitcoin and into altcoins — which could fuel a solid altcoin rally.
My local target for BTC dominance is 58.5%, while the broader downside targets, if market conditions remain unchanged, are 57% and 55%.
The invalidation of this scenario would be a breakout above last week’s high at 59.59%.
As we mentioned before in the following Link BTC.D is bearish for short term . Also USDT.D bearish too . So we see this conclusion That ALTCOINS get Bullish for Short term . Enjoy it.
And this right here is why we can have anything nice.
Still having the hardest time staying below
Resistance.
BTC dominance is still sitting below the key monthly resistance zone, showing clear rejection from the top.
As long as dominance stays under this area, it suggests money isn’t aggressively flowing into BTC, leaving room for altcoins to stabilize or gain some strength.
A breakout above the resistance would shift momentum back toward BTC, but for now the structure looks capped below this zone.
DYOR, NFA
Alt's need retail participation to thrive.
If Global Liquidity tightens, #BTC rolls over into 4 year cycle lows (q4 2026)
BTC.d will rise along with Stablecoin dominance.
This inverted chart shows a well formed Head and Shoulders that is about to test again a key level of significance.
I DO NOT expect it to hold.
Bitcoin Dominance Outlook for 2026–2027 (Summary)
The current structure strongly suggests a macro top in BTC.D, forming a clear Head & Shoulders pattern.
A breakdown below 57.30% would confirm the reversal.
Key Levels
57.30% – neckline break
54.51% – first support
50.86% – mid-range support; below this starts true altcoin rotation
44.53% – 42.46% – main target zone for a cycle bottom
Why This Makes Sense (Cycle Logic)
Bitcoin dominance historically bottoms 2 years after halving, during the major altcoin season:
2017 dip after 2013 cycle
2021 dip after 2017 cycle
Next projected dip → 2026–2027
ETH ETF adoption, RWA expansion, BTCFi, AI, L2s, and broader liquidity shifts all support a dominance decline during this period.
Projection
A realistic path for BTC.D in 2026–2027:
61% → 57% → 50% → 45% → 42%
The intersection zone around May 2027 aligns with a major structural support cluster, making 42–44% a strong candidate for the next cycle low.
It looks like Bitcoin Dominance is bouncing off of support and getting back to a historical trend upwards. Typically Bitcoin lead rallies are the healthiest.
Still for me closing in or below these two key levels are important for alts.
BTC dominance on the 1-day chart is showing a short-term recovery after finding strong support near the 58.5 %–58.6 % zone, which has acted as a demand area multiple times. After a clean rebound from this region, dominance has moved back above the lower boundary of the green zone with increasing volume, indicating buyers stepping in. However, it is now approaching the 59.8 %–60 % resistance, and the Ichimoku cloud above suggests that upside momentum may face some struggle before a clear breakout.
The overall trend remains neutral-to-bullish in the short term as long as price holds above 59 %. A breakout and daily close above 60.2 %–60.5 % would confirm renewed BTC strength over altcoins, likely causing altcoin weakness. Conversely, rejection from this resistance could lead to another pullback toward 58.8 %–58.5 % support. The next few daily candles will decide whether dominance continues its climb toward 61 % or consolidates in this range.
