BTC.D: The Market Maker's Final Trap Before the Real Altseason

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

mambik86

Hello, fellow traders!
I want to share my global perspective on the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D). On the weekly timeframe (1W), a classic macro fractal is forming, which points to the upcoming end of BTC's dominance and the start of a massive, parabolic altseason.
However, the current market condition requires maximum caution: before the global reversal, smart money is setting up a final trap for retail participants.

📊 Technical Analysis & Wedge Structure

The index has been moving inside a large-scale ascending wedge for a long time. Currently, the price is compressed in a local consolidation around the 0.236 (59.13%) level on the local Fibonacci grid.
Many retail traders, seeing the fading momentum of Bitcoin, have already started aggressively opening leveraged long positions on altcoins with high multiples. This is exactly what creates the ideal conditions for a massive liquidity hunt.

🪒 Phase 1: Local Upthrust and the Long "Squeeze" (Coming Weeks)

My primary scenario implies a false breakout of dominance to the upside (see the blue arrow on the chart). The index is expected to make an impulsive surge towards the upper boundary of the wedge, testing the local Fibonacci levels of 0.618 (62.51%) and, most likely, 0.786 (64.06%).
• What it means for the market: During this period, Bitcoin will either hold its ground or grow, while liquidity will be temporarily drained from altcoins. We will see a sharp 20–30% flush across the altcoin market. This is a necessary maneuver by the market maker to wipe out early leveraged longs, cool down the funding rates, and fill the spot limit orders of major funds at the expense of retail liquidations.

🚀 Phase 2: The Final Apotheosis (Macro Trend Reversal)

The 0.786 (64.06%) level on the local Fib grid acts as the ultimate line in the sand. As soon as the retail stops are collected and the MACD indicator on the monthly timeframe finally locks in a bearish cross (the fading momentum signals are already clearly visible on the histogram), the true reversal will begin:
1. The BTC.D index breaks below the lower boundary of the ascending wedge.
2. Bitcoin dominance starts a cascading decline along the path of the long-term blue arrow.
3. The global downside target is the 0.786 (43.41%) level on the MACRO Fibonacci grid (drawn from the 2021 peaks).

💡 Trading Plan & Conclusions

• Futures: In the coming weeks, holding medium-term altcoin longs with high leverage is extremely dangerous. The market is too "heavy" and requires a proper flush.
• Spot: A local surge in dominance towards 62.5% – 64% will be the perfect, final spot entry zone to accumulate strong altcoins that have been cleared of margin pressure (especially from the tech-driven DeFi, AI, and DePIN sectors) ahead of the parabolic altseason.
Share in the comments below: are you ready for the final shakeout, or are you already sitting in bags? Looking forward to your likes and follows!

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/nNRww7wf-BTC-D-The-Market-Maker-s-Final-Trap-Before-the-Real-Altseason/

CRYPTO IS PREPARING FOR A HISTORIC SHIFT

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

Cryptollica

something extraordinary is developing beneath the surface of the crypto market. Bitcoin dominance is approaching its most important decision point in years, while ETH/BTC is challenging a descending resistance line that has controlled its relative performance since 2017.

In 2017, Bitcoin dominance collapsed from 95% toward 35%. In 2021, it fell from 72% toward 39%. Both periods marked historic expansions across the altcoin market. Today, after reaching 66%, dominance is struggling to sustain its strength, with the 57% region emerging as the critical gatekeeper.

Meanwhile, ETH/BTC is attempting to escape nine years of descending resistance. These two developments are deeply connected. A sustained ETH/BTC breakout, accompanied by a loss of the 57% dominance floor, would provide powerful evidence that capital is finally rotating beyond Bitcoin.

The next historic altseason may begin precisely when the majority has stopped believing in one.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/SmlefC3W-CRYPTO-IS-PREPARING-FOR-A-HISTORIC-SHIFT/

Bitcoin.D is about to drop, and Altcoins are ready to explode!

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

hamzashabbir990

When I called the Bitcoin bottom and told you the OTHERS.D chart was going up, many doubted it. But look where we are now! Everything is playing out exactly as planned.
Now, the final piece of the puzzle is here. Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is hitting a massive wall and is ready to fall.
For 4 long years, everyone learned to hate altcoins. Right now, sentiment is so low that nobody is even talking about them anymore. Total silence. But in crypto, when everyone gives up and hates an asset, that is historically the exact moment it reverses.
The math is flipping, Bitcoin dominance is running out of steam, and the true Altcoin Bull Run is next. Don't say I didn't warn you! 🌋

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/WfmIZu1I-Bitcoin-D-is-about-to-drop-and-Altcoins-are-ready-to-explode/

BTC.D 1W outlook

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

Ernst_Journal

During each true BTC season previously we used to track BTC Dominance and how the main "grandfather" was absorbing all the liquidity around into itself.

This time is no different, although after $WLFI/$TRUMP and 10/10 event people stopped following BTC.D, since after Trump took his office, our previous indicators and patterns became useless (say hi to "M2" and the list goes on)

But, with SPY losing its volume while VIX is at it's lows and DXY/OIL both rising together with no signs of Iran accepting "The Art of Deal", I do believe that risk-on landscape will result in OTHERS losing its strength after late Aug - Sept bounce, thus, BTC.D may also rise back and retest its previous local highs (63%-64%) - Q4 26.

If that happens, I will be looking for opportunities in alts.

Nfa, I can always be wrong.
Good luck everyone.

By Ernst Journal

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/rgCnFS5Y-BTC-D-1W-outlook/

BTC.D

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

rezatangestani2

Btc.d will start a down trend by dimond pattern that will fail

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/wnPuX7jT-BTC-D/

BTC Dominance: Potential Pullback Toward 58.2%–58.5%

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

Serkology

BTC dominance is showing a possible bearish correction after its recent move toward 60.2%. The chart outlines potential downside levels near 59.8%, 59.6% and 59.35%, with the 58.2%–58.5% area marked as a broader target zone.
This scenario is conditional and may be invalidated if dominance resumes its upward move. This is a technical analysis, not financial advice.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/Z9WU1hJC-BTC-Dominance-Potential-Pullback-Toward-58-2-58-5/

BTC Dominance May Be on the Rise - But Why?

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

TheGemHunter

BTC Dominance - In a Nutshell
As many know, Bitcoin BTCUSD is the #1 crypto asset, currently accounting for ~60% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. When BTC.D rises and falls, it's important to know why. It could rise because of true, organic demand for BTC. Or, it could rise because of capital rotation (money moving away from altcoins, and into bitcoin, or something else). Conversely, it could fall due to an increase in altcoin market capitalization, or, because BTC is experiencing a genuine sell off.

BTC.D - From an Elliottician Perspective
I'm inclined to believe that applying the Elliott Wave principle to a ratio chart can be just as rewarding compared to price action charts; being that the wave count is correct and the utilization of alternative wave counts. The best Elliotticians in the world are even wrong at times, but to me, it's wrong only if someone suggests that something is "only this way" and does not state alternative wave counts and scenarios. It's very easy to approach a chart with a bullish or bearish perspective and miss potential wave counts that could suggest the opposite. So, with this in mind, I have performed a count on the BTC.D chart that shows alternative wave counts and invalidation levels that could mean the difference between further up, or further down.

📊Analysis
BTC.D is showing a potentially completed WXY pattern, that appears to have completed back in June '26. However, there are alternative wave counts that could suggest that the WXY is not complete, and it's possible that we get 5 waves down to complete orange 'c' of a zigzag down . I'm favoring a 5 wave move to the upside, reason being: the presumed Y wave has tagged a 1:0.618 ratio ( wave Y = wave W × 0.618 ). As well as the presumed blue (c) wave ( blue (c) = blue (a) × 0.618 ). These ratio's are quite bullish in this case and line up extraordinary well. But as mentioned, there are alternatives.

❌Invalidation Levels
A break below 58.92 would suggest that either white minor wave 2 has retraced lower, or wave 3 of 5 down is underway. What may confirm that wave 3 of 5 down is underway would be a break below 57.94; my presumed white 1 minor wave origin. If so, potential support is
@ 57.14 ( orange c = orange a ).

A break above 60.41 may suggest that wave 3 of 5 up is underway. If so, potential retracement is at 62.92 (wave 5 = wave 1 × 1.618 ). A break above 61.20 may confirm that wave 3 of 5 to the upside is underway.

Conclusion
Considering the dip during that past few days and the rise in BTC.D, it may be fair to say, that in this area, higher up on BTC.D could mean that altcoin market capitalization is diminishing. And, quite the opposite if it drops. I'll be adding alarms on these invalidations levels to help keep a closer eye on how structure develops. I'm very interested to see what happens in the days/weeks to come. Good Luck!

-Not Financial Advice-

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/5Mg9hM5K-BTC-Dominance-May-Be-on-the-Rise-But-Why/

End of altcoins?

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

Ravich000

BTC.D could go back to 85% if this bull flag pattern plays out, weekly RSI in bullish control zone...

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/rfWWSZws-End-of-altcoins/

BTC.D 1M – MA Cross Echoes Pre Altseason Setups

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

BKVIP

Bitcoin dominance is trading around 59.53% on the monthly timeframe as the shorter moving average crosses below the longer one, the same signal that appeared ahead of the previous two major altcoin cycles.

The chart shows this cross has now formed three times. The first came in early 2017 near 97%, right before dominance collapsed toward the 36% area during the 2017 altseason. The second formed in late 2020 near 63%, and after a brief push higher, dominance rolled over and fell toward 39% through the 2021 cycle. Both times, the cross appeared while dominance was compressing near the moving averages, with altcoins gaining relative ground over the following months.

The third cross is forming now, with price hugging both moving averages after a rejection from the 2025 high near 66%, showing the same compression that preceded each prior cycle.

Key Levels To Watch:
→ 66.00% 2025 high, major resistance above
→ 65.00% Prior resistance, upper boundary of the range
→ 59.53% Current price, sitting on the moving averages
→ 57.00% Range support, recent lows
→ 50.00% Psychological level, first major target on a breakdown
→ 39.00% 2022 low, prior cycle bottom

A breakdown below 57.00% would confirm dominance is rolling over as it did in 2017 and 2020, opening the path toward 50.00% and below, a move that historically coincided with capital rotating out of BTC and into altcoins.

A reclaim of 65.00% would invalidate the pattern for now, keeping dominance elevated and altcoins under pressure relative to Bitcoin, though the moving average cross would remain in place.

Break below 57.00% and the altseason playbook from 2017 and 2020 comes into play. Reclaim 65.00% and BTC keeps its relative strength.
Bias leans in favor of altcoins given the historical precedent, but confirmation comes from a decisive break below 57.00% rather than the cross alone.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/mHmUM2Jg-BTC-D-1M-MA-Cross-Echoes-Pre-Altseason-Setups/

BTC.D 1D – Compressing Into Apex of Descending Wedge

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

BKVIP

Bitcoin dominance is trading around 59.14% on the daily timeframe, coiling tightly at the apex of a descending wedge that has been forming since last October and is now approaching its resolution point.

The broader structure shows dominance oscillating in a wide range roughly between 58% and 61.4% for the past year, with a series of lower highs defining the descending upper trendline while a rising lower trendline has connected the higher lows since the June low near 57.95%. That compression has narrowed dramatically over the past few months, with both trendlines converging right around current levels, leaving very little room left for dominance to continue chopping sideways without a decisive break in either direction.

Price is currently sitting almost exactly between both trendlines near 59.14%, making this one of the tightest points of the entire structure and a clear signal that a resolution is close.

Key Levels To Watch:
→ 61.40% May high, upper range boundary
→ 60.30% Descending trendline resistance, current level
→ 59.14% Current price, sitting at the apex
→ 58.85% Ascending trendline support, current level
→ 58.15% June low, lower range boundary

A break and hold above the descending trendline would signal renewed strength for Bitcoin, with dominance likely pushing back toward 60.30% and potentially the 61.40% high, which would typically coincide with altcoins losing relative ground.

A break below the ascending trendline would confirm dominance is rolling over, opening the door toward 58.15% and below, a scenario that would favor continued alt outperformance as capital rotates away from BTC.

Break higher and BTC dominance reasserts itself against alts. Break lower and the rotation into alts continues building.
Bias stays neutral given the tightness of this wedge, but the resolution here, whichever direction it breaks, is likely to set the tone for BTC versus alt performance over the coming weeks.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/a1s3OL7Z-BTC-D-1D-Compressing-Into-Apex-of-Descending-Wedge/

GATEKEEPER IS BACK

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

Cryptollica

Bitcoin Dominance is once again sitting at the level that has historically decided whether capital stays concentrated in BTC or begins rotating aggressively into the rest of the market.

The comparison is striking. In 2017, dominance collapsed from roughly 95% toward 70%, briefly recovered, then broke below the key 49% area before the final move toward 35%. In 2021, the same broad sequence appeared again. Dominance peaked near 72%, compressed around the 58% region, then lost that floor and eventually fell toward 39%.
Now 2026 has returned to the same type of decision zone. BTC.D rejected near 66% and has spent months holding around 58%, almost exactly where the previous major rotation phase accelerated in 2021

58% is the line that matters. If the gate opens, the entire character of the crypto market changes.

This is why I call it the gatekeeper zone,, long as dominance remains above 58%Bitcoin can continue absorbing a disproportionate share of crypto capital and altcoin expansion can remain selective. But if this level finally breaks with acceptance below it, the historical map opens toward the 39% to 35% region, which would represent a completely different capital environment for altcoins.
A temporary rebound in dominance would not destroy the larger setup. Previous cycles also included violent countertrend moves before the real breakdown. important point is not whether BTC.D falls tomorrow. It is that the market has returned to the same structural boundary that separated Bitcoin leadership from broad altcoin rotation in previous cycles

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/BdP3Qwen-GATEKEEPER-IS-BACK/

BTC.D Update.

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

CryptoSanders9563

BTC.D Update

BTC Dominance is around 58.5–59.4% currently.

BTC.D holding higher → altcoins may remain under pressure. A clear breakdown below the recent support zone would strengthen the case for broader altcoin rotation.

Watch: BTC.D support + ETH/BTC together.
DYOR | NFA

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/THPk86qA-BTC-D-Update/

BTC Dominance falling

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

Lomeli760

Currency is flowing into alts.
If you’re anticipating alt season you must already be aware of the importance of this chart. When Bitcoin dominance falls alt coins rise in value.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/Q1pppxGa-BTC-Dominance-falling/

BTCD

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

Gun45

It happened twice would this time really be different?

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/7aihAc4h-BTCD/

BTC DOMINANCE [$BTC.D] ELLIOTT WAVE CRYPTO ANALYSIS WEEKLY TF

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

Anakyn

Bitcoin dominance is currently sitting at a technically significant point on the 2-week chart.

After the strong advance from the 2022 lows, BTC.D reached the Golden Zone Short resistance area, where several long-term resistance levels converged. The rejection from this zone was significant, and dominance is currently trading around 59.6%.

The immediate area to watch is 57–58%. As long as this support holds, another attempt towards the Golden Zone Short remains possible. A decisive break below it, however, would substantially weaken the bullish structure in BTC dominance and strengthen the case for a broader rotation into Alt-coins.

Below that level, I am watching approximately 54.5% and 48.5% as the next major horizontal support zones. In the larger structure, a decline towards the 39% region would become increasingly plausible if these levels fail.

My long-term scenario, illustrated on the chart, goes considerably further: completion of the larger corrective structure could ultimately take BTC dominance back towards the 28–30% area later in the decade.

It is important to remember that falling BTC dominance does not necessarily mean a falling Bitcoin price. It simply means that the rest of the crypto market is gaining market share relative to Bitcoin. BTC can therefore continue rising while BTC.D declines — historically, this is precisely the environment in which altcoins can begin to outperform significantly.

For now, 57–58% is the key battleground. Holding it keeps another BTC-dominance rally alive. Losing it would, in my view, be the first serious confirmation that a much larger rotation from Bitcoin into the broader crypto market may already be underway.

Not financial advice. Like and follow for more Elliott Wave and macro technical analysis.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/RZ4jpVxd-BTC-DOMINANCE-BTC-D-ELLIOTT-WAVE-CRYPTO-ANALYSIS-WEEKLY-TF/

Bitcoin Dominance Holds Above 60% as Price Tests Resistance

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

GlobalZentra

Chart Overview: Bitcoin Dominance (1H)
Looking at this 1-hour chart of Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), we can see a clear shift in momentum. After a steady downtrend that lasted for quite a while, the dominance has finally found a strong footing and is attempting to recover.
The Double Bottom Pattern
The most striking feature here is the classic Double Bottom pattern, which I've highlighted with the two blue curves at the bottom. This is a well-known bullish reversal signal. It means that the selling pressure that was driving Bitcoin's market share down has exhausted itself. The buyers stepped in around the 59.00% mark, defended that level twice, and pushed the price back up.
The Bullish Channel and Current Action
Right now, the price is trading around 59.74%. If you look closely at the recent price action, it's moving inside a sharp ascending channel (marked by the red parallel lines). This tells us that the short-term momentum is definitely bullish. The price just bounced off the lower boundary of this channel and is pushing towards the upper limit.
What This Means for the Market
When Bitcoin Dominance rises, it usually means money is flowing back into Bitcoin (and out of altcoins). The fact that we've broken out of the downtrend and formed this double bottom suggests that Bitcoin is currently showing relative strength compared to the rest of the crypto market.
Key Levels to Watch:
Upside: The immediate hurdle is the upper trendline of the red channel. If BTC.D breaks above this, the next major resistance lies around the 60.40% - 60.60% zone (the pink shaded area).
Downside: If it gets rejected at the top of the channel, we might see a pullback, but as long as it holds above the 59.00% double-bottom support, the bullish structure remains valid.
Bottom Line:
The chart is flashing bullish signals for Bitcoin's market share. Keep an eye on that 60.40% zone—if it breaks, it could signal the start of a new altcoin season, where money rotates back heavily into BTC.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/nuUORpVv-Bitcoin-Dominance-Holds-Above-60-as-Price-Tests-Resistance/

$BTC.D Update Huge Altseason coming soon

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

CryptoVhagar

Btc dominance about to fall below 54% soon.
Altcoins will go vertical soon.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/VabqE1lX-BTC-D-Update-Huge-Altseason-coming-soon/

it was brutal

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

DiscosCryptos

it was brutal but we live and learn. higher high on price, brekout - retest of the bottom of the rising wedge - then a pump failure... lets move forward and learn

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/1umSv6hY-it-was-brutal/

Btc-D analysis

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

ghznfr7

Dominance is rejecting at 60.3% ( note this monthly candle is still in progress and monthly closes below this level will confirm) . A monthly close below 58% is likely to cause it to drop to 50% on monthly time frame. RsI and MA50 are supporting a downward move.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/drFq64W4-Btc-D-analysis/

BİTCOİN DOMİNANCE

Market Cap BTC Dominance, % CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D

Desdemonaa

The primary chart I follow is the #Bitcoin Dominance chart. I believe the cycle in the crypto markets is shifting, but the only chart currently supporting this view is the BTC dominance chart.

source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/QAAa2w5k-B%C4%B0TCO%C4%B0N-DOM%C4%B0NANCE/