Fundamental Market Analysis for November 17, 2025 USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair is trading near 154.500, remaining close to multi-month highs. The main driver of the move is the wide yield spread between US and Japanese bonds, which supports demand for the dollar. The US economy is showing steady growth, and expectations for a fast and deep Fed easing cycle have been significantly revised lately.
The situation in Japan is different: recent GDP data pointed to a weakening economy, while price growth is slowing, forcing the Bank of Japan to act very cautiously. The regulator emphasizes that it will watch wage dynamics and the sustainability of inflation before deciding on further rate hikes, so the real yield in yen remains deeply negative.
As a result, the yen continues to be used as a cheap funding currency, while interest in the dollar and US assets remains strong. Until the market sees a policy reversal from the Bank of Japan or clear signals of sharp easing from the Fed, the fundamental background will remain favorable for keeping USD/JPY at elevated levels and for a moderate upward move of the pair.
Trade recommendation: BUY 154.500, SL 154.300, TP 155.150
source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDJPY/vISNqXlT-Fundamental-Market-Analysis-for-November-17-2025-USDJPY/
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