XAUUSD: 4,100 Rejected Again
XAUUSD: 4,100 Rejected Again
Market Context
Gold has been rejected above 4,100 again as Fed-driven volatility continues to control the market. The US Dollar has paused its post-FOMC selloff after new US attacks on Iran, keeping safe-haven demand and geopolitical risk in focus.
Technically, gold still needs a daily close above 4,100 and RSI holding above 50 to fully weaken the bearish outlook. Until that happens, the latest breakout attempt should be treated carefully.
Key point: gold broke out of the downtrend channel, but buyers failed to sustain momentum above the Strong High Supply zone.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 4,059 after a sharp rejection from the 4,095 - 4,105 resistance area. This is the Strong High Supply zone, where sellers reacted clearly.
The breakout from the downtrend channel was strong, but the follow-through was weak. Price pushed above the channel, tapped supply, then quickly lost momentum.
The next key area is the Deep Demand Zone around 4,000 - 4,020. If price continues to weaken, this is where buyers may look for a fresh reaction.
As long as gold stays below 4,095 - 4,105, the short-term structure remains vulnerable. Buyers need to reclaim 4,100 with strength before the recovery can continue.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,059
Strong High Supply: 4,095 - 4,105
Short-term Reaction Area: 4,050 - 4,060
Deep Demand Zone: 4,000 - 4,020
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,105
Bearish Continuation: Below 4,050
Trading Plan
Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,095 - 4,105
SL: Above 4,125
TP: 4,060 / 4,020 / 4,000
Condition: Price retests the Strong High Supply zone and gets rejected again. Sellers remain in control if gold fails to close above 4,105.
Sell Continuation
Entry: Below 4,050 after breakdown and retest
SL: Above 4,075
TP: 4,020 / 4,000 / 3,980
Condition: Price loses the short-term reaction area, retest fails, and bearish momentum continues toward the Deep Demand Zone.
Buy Reaction
Entry: 4,000 - 4,020
SL: Below 3,980
TP: 4,050 / 4,060 / 4,095
Condition: Price reaches the Deep Demand Zone and forms a clear bullish rejection. This is only a reaction buy, not a confirmed reversal.
Buy Breakout
Entry: Above 4,105 after breakout and retest
SL: Below 4,060
TP: 4,125 / 4,150 / 4,180
Condition: Buyers must reclaim 4,100 with strength, hold the retest, and keep RSI above the neutral zone. Without this confirmation, buying remains risky.
Overall Bias
Gold is not fully bearish, but buyers failed the key test at 4,100. The breakout lost momentum right inside the Strong High Supply zone.
If price stays below 4,095 - 4,105, the next logical move is a pullback toward 4,020 - 4,000. If buyers reclaim 4,105, the structure can shift back toward recovery.
Best approach: do not chase buys after rejection. Wait for either a clean reaction at demand or a confirmed breakout above 4,105.
Will gold defend the Deep Demand Zone, or will sellers use another 4,100 rejection to push price lower?
source
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/D8AKsnFT-XAUUSD-4-100-Rejected-Again/
