NVDA 1H + GEX Game Plan for Tue, Sep 16

NVIDIA Corporation BATS:NVDA

BullBearInsights

NVDA Coiling Under the 180 Gamma Wall — Break or Fade Day? 🚦
Market Structure (1H)
* Price rebounded from 172.5 and is compressing under a descending trendline drawn from ~180s.
* Momentum is turning up (MACD curling), but Stoch RSI is hot, so first touches into resistance can reject.
* Intraday balance likely between 172.5 ↔ 180 unless we get a clean break.

Key Levels
Resistance: 177.3–177.8 (intraday ceiling), 178.6, 180 (major wall), 182.5 (next wall), 185.
Support: 175.0, 172.5 (big pivot), 170.0, 167.5 (put wall), 165, 160.

GEX Read (Sep 16 session)

* Highest positive NETGEX / Call resistance: 180 (primary gamma wall).
* Additional call wall: 182.5.
* Put walls: 167.5 and 165.
* HVL / magnet: around 172.5.
* IVR ~3–4, IVx ~39 → options relatively cheap vs own history (careful with overtrading, but debit spreads price well).
* Participation skew light on calls (~25–26%): flow is neutral to slightly cautious.

Implication: Dealers likely keep NVDA pinned 172.5–180 unless flow shifts.
* Above 180: hedging can push to 182–182.5 → 185.
* Below 172.5: opens 170 → 167.5 (put wall magnet).

Trade Setups (use one, not all)
1) Bullish Breakout
* Trigger: 1H/15m close > 177.8 and hold above trendline; momentum stays positive.
* Entry: 178.0–178.2 on hold/retest.
* Targets: 179.8 → 180; runners 182–182.5.
* Invalidation/Stop: below 176.8 (back inside range).
* Options (conservative): 180/182.5 call debit spread (same-week). Take partial near 180; leave a runner only if 180 converts to support.

2) Fade the Wall
* Trigger: Spike into 179.8–180.2 and stall (lower TF rejection / bearish wick).
* Entry: scale in on the rejection.
* Targets: 177.5 → 175.5.
* Invalidation/Stop: above 181.2.
* Options: 180P or 177.5/175 put debit spread (same-week). Quick take-profits into 177–175.

3) Breakdown From Pivot
* Trigger: Clean 1H break < 172.5 with a retest that fails.
* Entry: 172.2–172.4 on failed retest.
* Targets: 170.5 → 167.8 (≈ put wall 167.5).
* Invalidation/Stop: back above 173.3.

* Options: 172.5/170 put debit spread, leave a runner toward 167.5 only if momentum accelerates.

Scalper’s Notes
* First test of 177.8–178.6 likely reacts. If buyers absorb, flip to breakout bias.
* If we gap near 175–176, watch for a quick liquidity sweep toward 172.5 → bounce back into range.
* VWAP/EMA retests that hold above 177.8 favor a push to 180; fails below 175 lean back to 172.5.

Swing Context (1–3 days)
* Still a lower-highs channel until 180/182.5 is reclaimed.
* Reclaim and hold ≥180 turns the path toward 185 this week.
* Lose 172.5 on a daily close and the door reopens to 170 → 167.5.

Risk & Management
* Keep risk tight at the edges; don’t chase inside the 175–177 chop.
* For spreads, size so a full debit loss is acceptable; scale out at first target.
* If IV expands into the move, take profits faster on long options.

This analysis is for education only, not financial advice. Manage risk and trade your plan.


source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NVDA/2EmnBv4U-NVDA-1H-GEX-Game-Plan-for-Tue-Sep-16/