ES (Sep 3): short pops into 6420–6435; watch JOLTS & Beige Book
HTF still skews bearish; intraday bounce stalled into overhead supply. For Wednesday (Sep 3), I’m planning sell-the-pop into 6420–6435 with confirmation. News risk: JOLTS 10:00 ET, Factory Orders 9:00 ET, Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET. ISM Services & ADP are Thursday (not Wed).
HTF bias (top-down)
• Weekly/Daily: Price rolled off the 6.5k zone; momentum flattening; room to probe lower demand in coming sessions.
• 4H/1H: Clean LH→LL sequence; today’s bounce tagged supply, then ranged under it. Bias sell rallies until acceptance above the ceiling.
Key zones I’m using (approx.)
• Supply / short zones: 6420–6435 (NY PM high / intraday OB cluster).
• Hard liquidity / targets below: 6396 → 6378 → 6310–6280 (HTF demand/extension cluster).
• Invalidation / flip line: 6448–6450 (15m/30m acceptance above = stand down shorts; consider flip long on retest).
Numbers reflect my mapping from today’s 30m/15m/5m; execution still needs rulebook confirmation (see below).
A++ setup (primary)
Short the pop into 6420–6435
• Trigger: 15m bearish context plus a 5m bearish close inside the zone (no exceptions).
• Initial stop: 6448 (or last swing high if tighter).
• TPs: TP1 6396 (scale ½) → TP2 6378 → TP3 6310.
• Management: Move stop → BE only after structure break or 15m/30m close through TP1; trail runners by 15m/30m swings.
Flip scenario (only if invalidated)
If we accept above 6448–6450 (15m close + hold), I’ll look long on a retest 6448–6452 toward 6463 → 6476+, provided structure confirms.
Macro calendar (what actually hits Wednesday Sep 3)
• 09:00 — Factory Orders (Jul) (Census M3; FRED calendar lists the release).  
• 10:00 — JOLTS (Jul) (labor demand; BLS schedule). 
• 14:00 — Fed Beige Book (regional conditions; often a volatility nudge). 
source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/HjvpRXf9-ES-Sep-3-short-pops-into-6420-6435-watch-JOLTS-Beige-Book/
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