BTC Dominance — The Midrange Barrier Before the Next Altseason
## 🧭 Structural Analysis of Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
Based on Bitcoin’s historical price behavior, the current market structure shows a strong resemblance between the **2017–2021** cycle and the ongoing **2024–2026** cycle.
The main reason why BTC Dominance has been unable to break below the **57.35%** level over the past month (September and October) is because this zone represents the **mid-range pivot line** within the broader historical range:
> 🔹 **Range High:** 79.29%
> 🔹 **Range Low:** 35.41%
This midpoint acts as a *structural pivot* for BTC Dominance — a zone that consistently triggers reactions:
* When dominance moves **from below to above**, it tends to **reject downward**.
* When it moves **from above to below**, it often **bounces upward**.
Therefore, breaking or reclaiming this line is never simple.
It usually requires:
* A **sideways accumulation phase above it** before a confirmed breakdown, or
* A **sideways distribution phase below it** before a confirmed breakout.
This exact structural behavior is what we’re currently observing on the chart.
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## 🕰️ Historical and Temporal Context
After reviewing BTC Dominance from **2017 through 2021**, we can clearly see that the current cycle is replicating the same behavioral rhythm.
Hence, it’s very likely that BTC Dominance will **continue consolidating sideways** between **57.5% and 66.5%** until around **April 2026**, which historically aligns with the **breakdown phase** that preceded the major *Altseason* in the previous cycle.
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## 🎯 Potential Targets After Breakdown
If BTC Dominance repeats its historical behavior and eventually breaks below the pivot zone, the next logical support targets would be:
> 🥇 **Target 1:** 50.60%
> 🥈 **Target 2:** 45.60–45.70%
Once these levels are reached, we could see a strong capital rotation into altcoins, potentially driving
the **Total 3 Market Cap** (all altcoins excluding the top 10) toward **$1.5T – $2T**.
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## 💬 Conclusion
BTC Dominance is currently sitting on a **critical historical pivot**, mirroring the 2020 structure right before the Altseason rally.
The most probable scenario is continued sideways consolidation until **April 2026**, followed by a potential breakdown and a shift of liquidity into the broader altcoin market.
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### ⚠️ **Disclaimer**
This analysis is for **educational and informational purposes only**.
It does **not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or trading signal**.
All opinions expressed here reflect my **personal market perspective** and may be subject to change without notice.
Trading and investing in financial markets involve **significant risk**, and you should **conduct your own research** or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
I also used **ChatGPT** only to help organize and refine the text for clarity — all analysis and conclusions are my own.
source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/Z9wcZWZI-BTC-Dominance-The-Midrange-Barrier-Before-the-Next-Altseason/
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