This Level Will Decide the Next Big Move in Crypto Markets
🔍 General Chart Context
This chart tracks Bitcoin Dominance (% of total crypto market cap), currently sitting around 62.04%. BTC Dominance reflects Bitcoin’s market share vs altcoins — when it rises, BTC is outperforming alts; when it falls, altcoins are gaining.
🔄 RSI Analysis:
VERY IMPORTANT
BTC.D RSI against BTC RSI (daily candle)
BTC dominance dropped 46% from December 2020 - May 2021, while the price has dropped 55%. 6 months of bear market created an all time low for the RSI on the daily - rightfully so, RSI went all the way down to 10.
NOW (Last week)... the RSI has dropped down to the same level for the first time in 3 years! However, the difference is (outside the fact were already in a bull market) BTC dominance only dropped 10%. This is literlly music to my ears, massive sign of strength!
BTC RSI on the daily will use that 10-11 level as a support (historically speaking extremely low probability RSI will decline further) and continue rising until BTC price reaches $138K we could see a 68% dominance and a 80 RSI, after BTC price topping out, price will rotate into the ALT's starting the ALT season everyone has been waiting for late August and resulting in BTC to drop most likely to the 100K level. Which will be my next accumulation zone for the next big leg up over the new year.
🔁 Historical Levels & Key Zones
Resistance (73.18%): This is a long-term top marked with historical rejections (highlighted with circles).
Major Resistance Zones:
68%: Also a local high from prior cycle — current short-term resistance.
65%: Interim structural resistance, previously tested as a top and support.
🔮 Interpretation & Probabilities
🟩 Bullish Scenario (High Probability)
As long as BTC.D stays in the channel, the most likely path is a retest of 65%–68%.
RSI nearing oversold supports a relief bounce soon.
If BTC price continues up, altcoins may bleed further — pushing BTC.D higher.
Key levels to reclaim: 65% and 68%. If broken, next target is the cycle top (73%).
🟥 Bearish Scenario (Moderate-Low Probability for now)
If BTC.D breaks below the ascending channel and loses 60%, we could enter:
An altcoin-led market (altseason).
Watch for confirmation via RSI divergence, price structure break, and volume drop in BTC.D.
🧠 Macro View & Correlation to Crypto Market Cycles
The trend since late 2022 shows BTC regaining strength over altcoins — consistent with risk-off sentiment and macro uncertainty.
A move above 68% dominance typically signals BTC dominance in bull runs, often preceding parabolic BTC price increases. Something I am personally expecting moving into the new year.
Conversely, a breakdown from the channel would mark a risk-on phase — favouring alts.
✅ Conclusion
BTC.D is in a macro uptrend but approaching a critical test of channel support + RSI bounce zone. If 60% holds, expect a move back toward 65–68%. If it breaks, altcoin dominance could surge. This chart is pivotal for allocating between BTC and alts. BTC will eventually rotate into ALT coins creating a price drop in BTC and an increase in price with majority of ALTS. I believe this will happen after BTC tops out late august at $138000, then a true ALT season is necessary.
Disclaimer:
The content provided in this post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. I am not a financial advisor, and this is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency, asset, or security. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading and investing involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
source https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/ftxNoN15-This-Level-Will-Decide-the-Next-Big-Move-in-Crypto-Markets/
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